The One Day To Avoid Selling Your Company Stock

Our analysis of post-lockup stock price data shows that, on average, one of the worst days to sell is on the day immediately following the lockup expiration.

We found that companies that had IPOs saw their stock prices decline, on average, by more than 1% that day, following an average 10% decline over the preceding three months. On average, IPO stocks recover from the trough of that day in the next day or two, and some – as highlighted in this related post – sustain their rebounds over time.

prices

Because many employees emerge from an IPO with a significant amount of their wealth tied up in their company’s stock, they are in a position of having to determine how to diversify their portfolios after the lockup — the time period immediately after an IPO during which insiders cannot sell. We previously released a stock sale simulator to help our clients understand different approaches to selling.

Of course, not all stock prices rebound even immediately after that post-lockup trough. The bottom quintile of stock-price performers in the 20 days before and after the lockup doesn’t ever rebound during that time period. On average, however, most stocks hit a trough on the first day — and if you can avoid selling at the trough, do so.

one-day

Here’s how we reached this conclusion: We calculated the one-day return and one-day volume growth on the first day of lockup expiration for each of the 254 tech IPOs from 2000-2011. We also took the average across all the IPOs. As a reference point, we calculated the one-day return of the S&P 500® on the same days, and took the average.

As the following graph shows, the S&P 500 is essentially flat, whereas the IPOs’ return is -1.15%. In the meanwhile, the IPOs’ trading volume rose by 178% on average, i.e., almost tripling the trading volume compared with that of the lockup period.

It’s hard to say exactly what is behind the post-lockup trough. In some cases, where a company’s stock price has declined over the previous three months, employee-insiders may be dumping their shares. In other cases, employees may simply have decided to escape the concentrated risk of having a portfolio that consists mainly of their company’s stock as soon as they can.

volume

In either case, however, the lesson is clear. On average, it is smart not to panic and sell your shares as soon as possible.

Graphics by Jared Jacobs.


Disclosure

The analysis contained in the graphs used to illustrate this blog post are based on publicly available data reviewed by Wealthfront for the years 2000 to 2011; past performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 (“Index”) is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Wealthfront. Copyright © 2015 by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution, reproduction and/or photocopying in whole or in part are prohibited Index Data Services Attachment without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

Tags: , , ,

Questions? Email knowledgecenter@wealthfront.com